Daniil Medvedev vs Sho Shimabukuro
Indoor hard · Best of 3 · Thu 22 Oct, 09:30 UTC
Daniil Medvedev: In formModel vs marketDaniil Medvedev: BusyDaniil Medvedev: Top 10
Who wins the Almaty Open? Title chances →Result
Daniil Medvedev won 6-2 6-1. The model had Daniil Medvedev at 81%, so the favourite came through.
Model vs. market
Daniil Medvedevmodel 81% · market 91%
Sho Shimabukuromodel 20% · market 9%
Bar: our surface Elo model. White tick: the market, bookmaker margin (3.9%) removed.
- Daniil Medvedev has won 8 of the last 10 matches.
- Sho Shimabukuro has won 3 of the last 10 matches.
- Sho Shimabukuro is 5–2 on i.hard in 2026.
- Daniil Medvedev has played 5 matches in the last 14 days.
- The model rates Sho Shimabukuro 10 points higher than the market does.
Daniil Medvedev
- Ranking
- #5 (seed 1)
- Elo
- 1805
- Indoor hard 2026
- 0–1
- Matches, last 14 days
- 5
- Days since last match
- 4
Last 10: 8W – 2L
- vs Rafael Jodar · 2026-10-17Lost
- vs Tommy Paul · 2026-10-16Won
- vs Stefanos Tsitsipas · 2026-10-14Won
- vs Dalibor Svrcina · 2026-10-12Won
- vs Jan-Lennard Struff · 2026-10-10Won
- vs Novak Djokovic · 2026-10-05Lost
- vs Francisco Cerundolo · 2026-10-04Won
- vs Jan-Lennard Struff · 2026-10-03Won
- vs Pablo Carreno-Busta · 2026-10-02Won
- vs Andrey Rublev · 2026-09-29Won
Sho Shimabukuro
- Ranking
- #109
- Elo
- 1558
- Indoor hard 2026
- 5–2
- Matches, last 14 days
- 1
- Days since last match
- 2
Last 10: 3W – 7L
- vs Roman Safiullin · 2026-10-20Won
- vs Miomir Kecmanovic · 2026-10-07Lost
- vs Denis Shapovalov · 2026-10-01Lost
- vs Hugo Gaston · 2026-09-24Lost
- vs Anton Shepp · 2026-09-20Won
- vs James Watt · 2026-09-19Won
- vs Arthur Rinderknech · 2026-08-30Lost
- vs Miomir Kecmanovic · 2026-08-23Lost
- vs Hubert Hurkacz · 2026-08-14Lost
- vs Jeff Wolf · 2026-08-12Lost
Serve and return
Career figures from the data provider.
| Medvedev | Shimabukuro | |
|---|---|---|
| First serve in | 61.2% | 56.4% |
| Points won on 1st serve | 75.0% | 70.9% |
| Points won on 2nd serve | 50.7% | 51.7% |
| Break points saved | 63.3% | 60.3% |
| Break points converted | 42.7% | 43.8% |
| Ace rate | 10.2% | 6.5% |
| Double-fault rate | 4.9% | 4.2% |
Model estimate, not a betting tip. Not tracked as a bet. 18+. Gamble responsibly. Compare any two ratings yourself in the Elo Win Probability Calculator, or remove the margin from other prices with the no-vig calculator.
The analysis behind every pick is in the Discord
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