Model board

ATP & WTA predictions: model vs. market

Every upcoming ATP and WTA main-draw match with our surface Elo win probability, converted to best of five at Grand Slams, next to the market price with the bookmaker margin removed. Click a match for form, head-to-head and serve stats. Updated 30 October at 05:30 UTC.

Model estimate, not a betting tip. Not tracked as a bet. 18+. Gamble responsibly. A gap between model and market is not a pick: our picks get a full analysis and have to pass further filters first.

Looking for the picks? Every pick comes with a full written analysis in our free Discord, posted before the match.Join the Discord →

How accurate is the model?

Across 567 settled matches the model's favourite won 59.8% of the time. Brier score (lower is better): model 0.2293, market 0.217.

Model gave the favourite 50–60%won 49.4% (expected 54.9%, n=235)
Model gave the favourite 60–70%won 60.3% (expected 64.5%, n=194)
Model gave the favourite 70–80%won 74.5% (expected 74.1%, n=94)
Model gave the favourite 80–90%won 82.5% (expected 84.3%, n=40)
Model gave the favourite 90–100%won 75% (expected 92.7%, n=4)

7 upcoming matches

Friday 30 October

ATP · Swiss Indoors Basel - BaselWho wins? Title chances →

ATP · Erste Bank Open - ViennaWho wins? Title chances →

Recent results

model favourite won 117 of 195

Last 8 days. Retirements and walkovers are listed but left out of the count.

All 199 settled matches from the last 8 days

The analysis behind every pick is in the Discord

This board covers every match. Our actual picks get a full written analysis (form, matchup, model vs. market) in the free Discord, posted before the match, together with the daily board.

Join Discord