David Goffin vs Alex Michelsen
Indoor hard · Best of 3 · Thu 22 Oct, 13:00 UTC
David Goffin: ColdDavid Goffin: Home
Who wins the European Open? Title chances →Result
Alex Michelsen won 6-3 6-4. The model had Alex Michelsen at 85%, so the favourite came through.
Model vs. market
David Goffinmodel 15% · market 9%
Alex Michelsenmodel 85% · market 91%
Bar: our surface Elo model. White tick: the market, bookmaker margin (3.8%) removed.
- David Goffin has won 3 of the last 10 matches.
- Alex Michelsen has won 6 of the last 10 matches.
- David Goffin is playing at home.
- The model rates David Goffin 6 points higher than the market does.
David Goffin
- Ranking
- #657 (seed WC)
- Elo
- 1413
- Indoor hard 2026
- 1–3
- Matches, last 14 days
- 1
- Days since last match
- 1
- Home
- Yes
Last 10: 3W – 7L
- vs Remy Bertola · 2026-10-21Won
- vs Clement Chidekh · 2026-09-29Lost
- vs Mark Lajal · 2026-09-21Lost
- vs Andrea Guerrieri · 2026-06-22Lost
- vs Toby Samuel · 2026-05-20Lost
- vs Chun Hsin Tseng · 2026-05-18Won
- vs Thomas Faurel · 2026-04-29Lost
- vs Emilio Nava · 2026-04-11Lost
- vs Emilio Nava · 2026-04-05Lost
- vs Ignacio Buse · 2026-04-04Won
Alex Michelsen
- Ranking
- #37 (seed 5)
- Elo
- 1712
- Indoor hard 2026
- 2–1
- Matches, last 14 days
- 2
- Days since last match
- 3
Last 10: 6W – 4L
- vs Andrea Guerrieri · 2026-10-19Won
- vs Botic Van De Zandschulp · 2026-10-10Lost
- vs Carlos Alcaraz · 2026-10-01Lost
- vs Frances Tiafoe · 2026-09-08Lost
- vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry · 2026-09-06Won
- vs Daniel Merida Aguilar · 2026-09-04Won
- vs Brandon Nakashima · 2026-09-02Won
- vs Federico Cina · 2026-08-31Won
- vs Taylor Fritz · 2026-08-16Lost
- vs Jesper De Jong · 2026-08-14Won
Serve and return
Career figures from the data provider.
| Goffin | Michelsen | |
|---|---|---|
| First serve in | 58.0% | 65.7% |
| Points won on 1st serve | 71.6% | 70.3% |
| Points won on 2nd serve | 50.5% | 51.8% |
| Break points saved | 59.5% | 62.0% |
| Break points converted | 41.2% | 41.9% |
| Ace rate | 6.8% | 6.0% |
| Double-fault rate | 4.4% | 3.3% |
Model estimate, not a betting tip. Not tracked as a bet. 18+. Gamble responsibly. Compare any two ratings yourself in the Elo Win Probability Calculator, or remove the margin from other prices with the no-vig calculator.
The analysis behind every pick is in the Discord
This page is the model's view. Our actual picks get a full written analysis and further filters, and they are posted in the free Discord before the match.