Lorenzo Musetti vs Taylor Fritz
Indoor hard · Best of 3 · Sun 25 Oct, 13:30 UTC
Toss-upLorenzo Musetti: In formTaylor Fritz: In formModel vs market
Who wins the Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes? Title chances →Result
Lorenzo Musetti won 6-3 6-4. The model had Taylor Fritz at 53%, so this one went the other way.
Model vs. market
Lorenzo Musettimodel 47% · market 35%
Taylor Fritzmodel 53% · market 65%
Bar: our surface Elo model. White tick: the market, bookmaker margin (2.9%) removed.
- Lorenzo Musetti has won 7 of the last 10 matches.
- Taylor Fritz has won 6 of the last 10 matches.
- Taylor Fritz is 7–2 on i.hard in 2026.
- Lorenzo Musetti leads the head-to-head 4–3.
- The model rates Lorenzo Musetti 12 points higher than the market does.
Lorenzo Musetti
- Ranking
- #26 (seed 6)
- Elo
- 1767
- Indoor hard 2026
- 4–0
- Matches, last 14 days
- 4
- Days since last match
- 0
Last 10: 7W – 3L
- vs Flavio Cobolli · 2026-10-24Won
- vs Luca Van Assche · 2026-10-23Won
- vs Moise Kouame · 2026-10-21Won
- vs Matteo Arnaldi · 2026-10-19Won
- vs Yi Zhou · 2026-10-09Lost
- vs Dane Sweeny · 2026-09-03Lost
- vs Arthur Fery · 2026-09-01Won
- vs Frances Tiafoe · 2026-08-21Lost
- vs Jaime Faria · 2026-08-19Won
- vs Michael Zheng · 2026-08-18Won
Taylor Fritz
- Ranking
- #14 (seed 2WC)
- Elo
- 1789
- Indoor hard 2026
- 7–2
- Matches, last 14 days
- 4
- Days since last match
- 1
Last 10: 6W – 4L
- vs Tommy Paul · 2026-10-24Won
- vs Daniel Altmaier · 2026-10-23Won
- vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert · 2026-10-22Won
- vs Stefanos Tsitsipas · 2026-10-12Lost
- vs Matteo Arnaldi · 2026-10-10Won
- vs Jaume Antoni Munar Clar · 2026-10-01Lost
- vs Carlos Alcaraz · 2026-09-26Lost
- vs Francisco Cerundolo · 2026-09-05Lost
- vs Mattia Bellucci · 2026-09-03Won
- vs Darwin Blanch · 2026-09-01Won
Head-to-head
All surfaces: Lorenzo Musetti 4–3 Taylor Fritz. On indoor hard: 1–0.
All 8 meetings with scores and stats →Serve and return
Career figures from the data provider.
| Musetti | Fritz | |
|---|---|---|
| First serve in | 64.3% | 60.6% |
| Points won on 1st serve | 69.3% | 77.0% |
| Points won on 2nd serve | 52.8% | 52.6% |
| Break points saved | 60.0% | 65.0% |
| Break points converted | 41.9% | 38.0% |
| Ace rate | 4.7% | 12.4% |
| Double-fault rate | 2.8% | 2.9% |
Model estimate, not a betting tip. Not tracked as a bet. 18+. Gamble responsibly. Compare any two ratings yourself in the Elo Win Probability Calculator, or remove the margin from other prices with the no-vig calculator.
The analysis behind every pick is in the Discord
This page is the model's view. Our actual picks get a full written analysis and further filters, and they are posted in the free Discord before the match.