Karen Khachanov vs Carlos Alcaraz
Indoor hard · Best of 3 · Tue 27 Oct, 14:00 UTC
Alcaraz 6–0 H2HCarlos Alcaraz: In formCarlos Alcaraz: Top 10
Who wins the Erste Bank Open? Title chances →Result
Carlos Alcaraz won 6-4 7-6(5). The model had Carlos Alcaraz at 83%, so the favourite came through.
Model vs. market
Karen Khachanovmodel 17% · market 19%
Carlos Alcarazmodel 83% · market 81%
Bar: our surface Elo model. White tick: the market, bookmaker margin (3.3%) removed.
- Karen Khachanov has won 6 of the last 10 matches.
- Carlos Alcaraz has won 8 of the last 10 matches.
- Karen Khachanov is 3–2 on i.hard in 2026.
- Carlos Alcaraz leads the head-to-head 6–0.
Karen Khachanov
- Ranking
- #24
- Elo
- 1686
- Indoor hard 2026
- 3–2
- Matches, last 14 days
- 4
- Days since last match
- 4
Last 10: 6W – 4L
- vs Alexander Bublik · 2026-10-23Lost
- vs Tomas Machac · 2026-10-22Won
- vs Rei Sakamoto · 2026-10-20Won
- vs Alex De Minaur · 2026-10-13Lost
- vs Adrian Mannarino · 2026-10-11Won
- vs Arthur Fery · 2026-10-09Won
- vs Hubert Hurkacz · 2026-10-04Lost
- vs Alex Molcan · 2026-10-02Won
- vs Felix Auger Aliassime · 2026-09-30Won
- vs Alexander Zverev · 2026-09-11Lost
Carlos Alcaraz
- Ranking
- #3 (seed 2WC)
- Elo
- 1956
- Indoor hard 2026
- 1–0
- Matches, last 14 days
- 0
- Days since last match
- 15
Last 10: 8W – 2L
- vs Zizou Bergs · 2026-10-12Lost
- vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo · 2026-10-10Won
- vs Jiri Lehecka · 2026-10-06Won
- vs Jaume Antoni Munar Clar · 2026-10-05Won
- vs Denis Shapovalov · 2026-10-04Won
- vs Matteo Arnaldi · 2026-10-03Won
- vs Alex Michelsen · 2026-10-01Won
- vs Taylor Fritz · 2026-09-26Won
- vs Ben Shelton · 2026-09-08Lost
- vs Tommy Paul · 2026-09-06Won
Head-to-head
All surfaces: Karen Khachanov 0–6 Carlos Alcaraz. On indoor hard: 0–2.
All 7 meetings with scores and stats →Serve and return
Career figures from the data provider.
| Khachanov | Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|
| First serve in | 62.0% | 65.6% |
| Points won on 1st serve | 73.8% | 70.7% |
| Points won on 2nd serve | 52.1% | 55.6% |
| Break points saved | 63.3% | 63.4% |
| Break points converted | 40.5% | 42.8% |
| Ace rate | 9.2% | 5.0% |
| Double-fault rate | 3.1% | 3.1% |
Model estimate, not a betting tip. Not tracked as a bet. 18+. Gamble responsibly. Compare any two ratings yourself in the Elo Win Probability Calculator, or remove the margin from other prices with the no-vig calculator.
The analysis behind every pick is in the Discord
This page is the model's view. Our actual picks get a full written analysis and further filters, and they are posted in the free Discord before the match.