Tommy Paul vs Andrey Rublev
Indoor hard · Best of 3 · Tue 27 Oct, 12:30 UTC
Model vs marketTommy Paul: Busy
Who wins the Erste Bank Open? Title chances →Result
Tommy Paul won 7-5 6-2. The model had Tommy Paul at 66%, so the favourite came through.
Model vs. market
Tommy Paulmodel 66% · market 58%
Andrey Rublevmodel 34% · market 42%
Bar: our surface Elo model. White tick: the market, bookmaker margin (3.4%) removed.
- Tommy Paul has won 6 of the last 10 matches.
- Andrey Rublev has won 5 of the last 10 matches.
- Tommy Paul is 3–2 on i.hard in 2026.
- Andrey Rublev leads the head-to-head 5–1.
- Tommy Paul has played 5 matches in the last 14 days.
- The model rates Tommy Paul 8 points higher than the market does.
Tommy Paul
- Ranking
- #14 (seed 7)
- Elo
- 1793
- Indoor hard 2026
- 3–2
- Matches, last 14 days
- 5
- Days since last match
- 3
Last 10: 6W – 4L
- vs Taylor Fritz · 2026-10-24Lost
- vs Corentin Moutet · 2026-10-23Won
- vs Benjamin Bonzi · 2026-10-21Won
- vs Daniil Medvedev · 2026-10-16Lost
- vs Zizou Bergs · 2026-10-14Won
- vs Valentin Vacherot · 2026-10-12Won
- vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo · 2026-10-10Won
- vs Alejandro Tabilo · 2026-09-30Lost
- vs Carlos Alcaraz · 2026-09-06Lost
- vs Alexander Bublik · 2026-09-04Won
Andrey Rublev
- Ranking
- #22
- Elo
- 1680
- Indoor hard 2026
- 0–1
- Matches, last 14 days
- 1
- Days since last match
- 6
Last 10: 5W – 5L
- vs Adrian Mannarino · 2026-10-21Lost
- vs Rei Sakamoto · 2026-10-09Lost
- vs Alex De Minaur · 2026-10-04Lost
- vs Roman Safiullin · 2026-10-03Won
- vs Tallon Griekspoor · 2026-10-01Won
- vs Daniil Medvedev · 2026-09-29Lost
- vs Kyrian Jacquet · 2026-09-28Won
- vs Hugo Gaston · 2026-09-27Won
- vs Rinky Hijikata · 2026-09-25Won
- vs Daniel Merida Aguilar · 2026-09-02Lost
Head-to-head
All surfaces: Tommy Paul 1–5 Andrey Rublev. On indoor hard: 1–2.
All 7 meetings with scores and stats →Serve and return
Career figures from the data provider.
| Paul | Rublev | |
|---|---|---|
| First serve in | 60.1% | 60.4% |
| Points won on 1st serve | 71.4% | 74.7% |
| Points won on 2nd serve | 52.7% | 51.1% |
| Break points saved | 61.3% | 63.6% |
| Break points converted | 42.3% | 38.7% |
| Ace rate | 6.5% | 8.7% |
| Double-fault rate | 3.1% | 3.5% |
Model estimate, not a betting tip. Not tracked as a bet. 18+. Gamble responsibly. Compare any two ratings yourself in the Elo Win Probability Calculator, or remove the margin from other prices with the no-vig calculator.
The analysis behind every pick is in the Discord
This page is the model's view. Our actual picks get a full written analysis and further filters, and they are posted in the free Discord before the match.