Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino
Indoor hard · Best of 3 · Wed 28 Oct, 16:35 UTC
Adrian Mannarino: In formModel vs marketAdrian Mannarino: Busy
Who wins the Erste Bank Open? Title chances →Result
Adrian Mannarino won 6-4 7-5. The model had Jakub Mensik at 68%, so this one went the other way.
Model vs. market
Jakub Mensikmodel 68% · market 21%
Adrian Mannarinomodel 32% · market 79%
Bar: our surface Elo model. White tick: the market, bookmaker margin (2.9%) removed.
- Jakub Mensik has won 5 of the last 10 matches.
- Adrian Mannarino has won 7 of the last 10 matches.
- Adrian Mannarino is 11–5 on i.hard in 2026.
- Adrian Mannarino leads the head-to-head 1–0.
- Adrian Mannarino has played 6 matches in the last 14 days.
- The model rates Jakub Mensik 47 points higher than the market does.
Jakub Mensik
- Ranking
- #16 (seed 8)
- Elo
- 1740
- Indoor hard 2026
- 2–2
- Matches, last 14 days
- 1
- Days since last match
- 2
Last 10: 5W – 5L
- vs Lukas Neumayer · 2026-10-26Won
- vs Arthur Gea · 2026-10-13Lost
- vs Francisco Cerundolo · 2026-10-11Won
- vs Miomir Kecmanovic · 2026-10-09Won
- vs Francisco Cerundolo · 2026-10-03Lost
- vs Alexander Bublik · 2026-10-01Won
- vs Brandon Nakashima · 2026-09-25Lost
- vs Ben Shelton · 2026-09-19Won
- vs Learner Tien · 2026-09-18Lost
- vs Learner Tien · 2026-09-05Lost
Adrian Mannarino
- Ranking
- #73 (seed q)
- Elo
- 1611
- Indoor hard 2026
- 11–5
- Matches, last 14 days
- 6
- Days since last match
- 1
Last 10: 7W – 3L
- vs Ignacio Buse · 2026-10-27Won
- vs Alex Molcan · 2026-10-25Won
- vs Thiago Agustin Tirante · 2026-10-24Won
- vs Nikoloz Basilashvili · 2026-10-23Lost
- vs Andrey Rublev · 2026-10-21Won
- vs Aleksandar Vukic · 2026-10-19Won
- vs Karen Khachanov · 2026-10-11Lost
- vs Flavio Cobolli · 2026-10-09Won
- vs Nikoloz Basilashvili · 2026-10-07Won
- vs Pablo Carreno-Busta · 2026-09-29Lost
Serve and return
Career figures from the data provider.
| Mensik | Mannarino | |
|---|---|---|
| First serve in | 59.1% | 60.3% |
| Points won on 1st serve | 75.5% | 70.1% |
| Points won on 2nd serve | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| Break points saved | 62.0% | 59.4% |
| Break points converted | 40.6% | 41.8% |
| Ace rate | 11.6% | 6.3% |
| Double-fault rate | 4.8% | 3.2% |
Model estimate, not a betting tip. Not tracked as a bet. 18+. Gamble responsibly. Compare any two ratings yourself in the Elo Win Probability Calculator, or remove the margin from other prices with the no-vig calculator.
The analysis behind every pick is in the Discord
This page is the model's view. Our actual picks get a full written analysis and further filters, and they are posted in the free Discord before the match.