Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz
Indoor hard · Best of 3 · Fri 30 Oct, 14:00 UTC
Tommy Paul: In formCarlos Alcaraz: In formTommy Paul: BusyCarlos Alcaraz: Top 10
Who wins the Erste Bank Open? Title chances →Model vs. market
Tommy Paulmodel 28% · market 22%
Carlos Alcarazmodel 72% · market 78%
Bar: our surface Elo model. White tick: the market, bookmaker margin (2.9%) removed.
- Tommy Paul has won 7 of the last 10 matches.
- Carlos Alcaraz has won 9 of the last 10 matches.
- Tommy Paul is 5–2 on i.hard in 2026.
- Carlos Alcaraz leads the head-to-head 7–2.
- Tommy Paul has played 6 matches in the last 14 days.
- The model rates Tommy Paul 6 points higher than the market does.
Tommy Paul
- Ranking
- #14 (seed 7)
- Elo
- 1793
- Indoor hard 2026
- 5–2
- Matches, last 14 days
- 6
- Days since last match
- 0
Last 10: 7W – 3L
- vs Luciano Darderi · 2026-10-29Won
- vs Andrey Rublev · 2026-10-27Won
- vs Taylor Fritz · 2026-10-24Lost
- vs Corentin Moutet · 2026-10-23Won
- vs Benjamin Bonzi · 2026-10-21Won
- vs Daniil Medvedev · 2026-10-16Lost
- vs Zizou Bergs · 2026-10-14Won
- vs Valentin Vacherot · 2026-10-12Won
- vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo · 2026-10-10Won
- vs Alejandro Tabilo · 2026-09-30Lost
Carlos Alcaraz
- Ranking
- #3 (seed 2WC)
- Elo
- 1956
- Indoor hard 2026
- 3–0
- Matches, last 14 days
- 2
- Days since last match
- 0
Last 10: 9W – 1L
- vs Nikoloz Basilashvili · 2026-10-29Won
- vs Karen Khachanov · 2026-10-27Won
- vs Zizou Bergs · 2026-10-12Lost
- vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo · 2026-10-10Won
- vs Jiri Lehecka · 2026-10-06Won
- vs Jaume Antoni Munar Clar · 2026-10-05Won
- vs Denis Shapovalov · 2026-10-04Won
- vs Matteo Arnaldi · 2026-10-03Won
- vs Alex Michelsen · 2026-10-01Won
- vs Taylor Fritz · 2026-09-26Won
Head-to-head
All surfaces: Tommy Paul 2–7 Carlos Alcaraz. On indoor hard: 2–4.
Serve and return
Career figures from the data provider.
| Paul | Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|
| First serve in | 60.1% | 65.6% |
| Points won on 1st serve | 71.4% | 70.8% |
| Points won on 2nd serve | 52.8% | 55.6% |
| Break points saved | 61.2% | 63.3% |
| Break points converted | 42.3% | 42.7% |
| Ace rate | 6.5% | 5.0% |
| Double-fault rate | 3.1% | 3.1% |
Model estimate, not a betting tip. Not tracked as a bet. 18+. Gamble responsibly. Compare any two ratings yourself in the Elo Win Probability Calculator, or remove the margin from other prices with the no-vig calculator.
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