ATP China Open 2026: title chances
Tournament finished. The final result is not recorded in our data yet, so the table shows the last simulation before the final. Updated 6 October at 05:30 UTC.
Results already played are fixed; every open match is decided by the Elo win probability. Model estimate, not a betting tip. 18+.
| Player | R2 | QF | SF | Final | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novak Djokovic [6] · #11 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 53% |
| Alex De Minaur [5] · #9 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 47% |
| Alex Molcan (Q) · #84Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alexander Bublik · #22Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alexander Zverev [1] · #2Out in QF | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrey Rublev · #23Out in QF | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arthur Gea (Q) · #56Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Botic Van De Zandschulp (Q) · #41Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bu Yunchaokete (WC) · #93Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cameron Norrie · #40Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniil Medvedev [3] · #5Out in SF | — | — | — | — | — |
| Felix Auger Aliassime [2] · #6Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Flavio Cobolli [4] · #7Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Francisco Cerundolo · #20Out in QF | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hubert Hurkacz · #34Out in SF | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ignacio Buse · #36Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jakub Mensik [8] · #15Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jan-Lennard Struff · #59Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo · #55Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Juncheng Shang (WC) · #214Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Karen Khachanov · #27Out in QF | — | — | — | — | — |
| Learner Tien (7WC) · #16Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mariano Navone · #47Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nuno Borges · #51Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pablo Carreno-Busta (Q) · #65Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Quentin Halys · #48Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Roman Safiullin (SE) · #79Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sebastian Baez · #53Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tallon Griekspoor · #58Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante · #54Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tomas Machac (LL) · #75Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zhizhen Zhang (WC) · #166Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Columns show the chance to reach each stage. Percentages below 1% are shown as <1%.
The analysis behind every pick is in the Discord
Title chances are the model's view of the draw. Our actual picks get a full written analysis in the free Discord, posted before each match.