ATP Japan Open Tennis Championships 2026: title chances
Tournament finished. The final result is not recorded in our data yet, so the table shows the last simulation before the final. Updated 6 October at 05:30 UTC.
Results already played are fixed; every open match is decided by the Elo win probability. Model estimate, not a betting tip. 18+.
| Player | R2 | QF | SF | Final | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz [1] · #3 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 76% |
| Jiri Lehecka · #19 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 25% |
| Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (Q) · #52Out in QF | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina · #26Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alejandro Tabilo · #30Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Michelsen · #35Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alexander Blockx · #28Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arthur Fery · #37Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arthur Fils (Q) · #10Out in QF | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brandon Nakashima [5] · #18Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Casper Ruud [6] · #24Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Denis Shapovalov · #42Out in QF | — | — | — | — | — |
| Frances Tiafoe [2] · #8Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Holger Rune · #195Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jaime Faria (LL) · #60Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jaume Antoni Munar Clar (Q) · #49Out in SF | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kei Nishikori (WC)Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kyrian Jacquet (SE) · #76Out in QF | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luca Van Assche · #45Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luciano Darderi · #21Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matteo Arnaldi · #38Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matteo Berrettini · #46Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rafael Jodar [4] · #13Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rei Sakamoto (WC) · #137Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sho Shimabukuro (WC) · #109Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas (Q) · #43Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Taylor Fritz [3] · #12Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry · #31Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tommy Paul [7] · #17Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ugo Humbert · #32Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Valentin Vacherot [8] · #14Out in SF | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zizou Bergs · #39Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Columns show the chance to reach each stage. Percentages below 1% are shown as <1%.
The analysis behind every pick is in the Discord
Title chances are the model's view of the draw. Our actual picks get a full written analysis in the free Discord, posted before each match.