Moyuka Uchijima vs Elise Mertens
Hard · Best of 3 · Mon 26 Oct, 05:00 UTC
Moyuka Uchijima: ColdMoyuka Uchijima: Home
Who wins the Toray Pan Pacific Open? Title chances →Result
Elise Mertens won 6-4 6-2. The model had Elise Mertens at 76%, so the favourite came through.
Model vs. market
Moyuka Uchijimamodel 24% · market 17%
Elise Mertensmodel 76% · market 83%
Bar: our surface Elo model. White tick: the market, bookmaker margin (3.8%) removed.
- Moyuka Uchijima has won 3 of the last 10 matches.
- Elise Mertens has won 5 of the last 10 matches.
- Moyuka Uchijima is 12–13 on hard in 2026.
- Elise Mertens is 21–13 on hard in 2026.
- Elise Mertens leads the head-to-head 2–0.
- Moyuka Uchijima is playing at home.
- The model rates Moyuka Uchijima 8 points higher than the market does.
Moyuka Uchijima
- Ranking
- #121 (seed WC)
- Elo
- 1559
- Hard 2026
- 12–13
- Matches, last 14 days
- 2
- Days since last match
- 4
- Home
- Yes
Last 10: 3W – 7L
- vs Mary Stoiana · 2026-10-22Lost
- vs Ena Shibahara · 2026-10-20Won
- vs Magdalena Frech · 2026-10-10Lost
- vs Zhuoxuan Bai · 2026-10-06Lost
- vs Lanlana Tararudee · 2026-09-21Lost
- vs Lucie Havlickova · 2026-08-26Lost
- vs Polona Hercog · 2026-08-25Won
- vs Harriet Dart · 2026-08-11Lost
- vs Aryna Sabalenka · 2026-08-04Lost
- vs Cristina Bucsa · 2026-08-02Won
Elise Mertens
- Ranking
- #15 (seed 5)
- Elo
- 1756
- Hard 2026
- 21–13
- Matches, last 14 days
- 2
- Days since last match
- 7
Last 10: 5W – 5L
- vs Leylah Annie Fernandez · 2026-10-19Lost
- vs Daria Snigur · 2026-10-13Lost
- vs Qinwen Zheng · 2026-10-10Lost
- vs Iga Swiatek · 2026-10-09Won
- vs Cori Gauff · 2026-10-07Won
- vs Jelena Ostapenko · 2026-10-05Won
- vs Katie Volynets · 2026-10-03Won
- vs Maja Chwalinska · 2026-09-25Lost
- vs Naomi Osaka · 2026-09-05Lost
- vs Maria Timofeeva · 2026-09-03Won
Head-to-head
All surfaces: Moyuka Uchijima 0–2 Elise Mertens. On hard: 0–2.
All 3 meetings with scores and stats →Serve and return
Career figures from the data provider.
| Uchijima | Mertens | |
|---|---|---|
| First serve in | 59.6% | 58.9% |
| Points won on 1st serve | 63.6% | 66.7% |
| Points won on 2nd serve | 45.3% | 45.3% |
| Break points saved | 54.6% | 56.0% |
| Break points converted | 47.5% | 47.7% |
| Ace rate | 3.5% | 5.1% |
| Double-fault rate | 5.8% | 6.7% |
Model estimate, not a betting tip. Not tracked as a bet. 18+. Gamble responsibly. Compare any two ratings yourself in the Elo Win Probability Calculator, or remove the margin from other prices with the no-vig calculator.
The analysis behind every pick is in the Discord
This page is the model's view. Our actual picks get a full written analysis and further filters, and they are posted in the free Discord before the match.