Naomi Osaka vs Jasmine Paolini
Hard · Best of 3 · Tue 27 Oct, 08:00 UTC
Jasmine Paolini: BusyNaomi Osaka: Home
Who wins the Toray Pan Pacific Open? Title chances →Result
Naomi Osaka won 6-3 7-6(4). The model had Naomi Osaka at 67%, so the favourite came through.
Model vs. market
Naomi Osakamodel 67% · market 72%
Jasmine Paolinimodel 33% · market 28%
Bar: our surface Elo model. White tick: the market, bookmaker margin (3.4%) removed.
- Naomi Osaka has won 7 of the last 10 matches.
- Jasmine Paolini has won 5 of the last 10 matches.
- Naomi Osaka is 15–8 on hard in 2026.
- Jasmine Paolini is 13–11 on hard in 2026.
- Jasmine Paolini leads the head-to-head 1–0.
- Naomi Osaka is playing at home.
- Jasmine Paolini has played 5 matches in the last 14 days.
- The model rates Jasmine Paolini 5 points higher than the market does.
Naomi Osaka
- Ranking
- #18 (seed 7)
- Elo
- 1857
- Hard 2026
- 15–8
- Matches, last 14 days
- 0
- Days since last match
- 20
- Home
- Yes
Last 10: 7W – 3L
- vs Karolina Muchova · 2026-10-06Lost
- vs Sara Bejlek · 2026-10-04Won
- vs Maria Timofeeva · 2026-10-02Won
- vs Elena Rybakina · 2026-09-07Lost
- vs Elise Mertens · 2026-09-05Won
- vs Katerina Siniakova · 2026-09-03Won
- vs Anastasia Zakharova · 2026-08-31Won
- vs Elena Rybakina · 2026-08-11Lost
- vs Leylah Annie Fernandez · 2026-08-09Won
- vs Elise Mertens · 2026-08-07Won
Jasmine Paolini
- Ranking
- #35
- Elo
- 1737
- Hard 2026
- 13–11
- Matches, last 14 days
- 5
- Days since last match
- 4
Last 10: 5W – 5L
- vs Iva Jovic · 2026-10-22Lost
- vs Anhelina Kalinina · 2026-10-20Won
- vs Sonay Kartal · 2026-10-15Lost
- vs Nikola Bartunkova · 2026-10-14Won
- vs Sara Bejlek · 2026-10-12Won
- vs Daria Snigur · 2026-10-02Lost
- vs Elina Svitolina · 2026-09-26Lost
- vs Qinwen Zheng · 2026-09-24Won
- vs Sorana Cirstea · 2026-09-04Lost
- vs Lucrezia Stefanini · 2026-09-02Won
Head-to-head
All surfaces: Naomi Osaka 0–1 Jasmine Paolini. On hard: 0–1.
All 2 meetings with scores and stats →Serve and return
Career figures from the data provider.
| Osaka | Paolini | |
|---|---|---|
| First serve in | 56.6% | 65.2% |
| Points won on 1st serve | 71.8% | 59.8% |
| Points won on 2nd serve | 48.4% | 47.0% |
| Break points saved | 58.6% | 54.7% |
| Break points converted | 45.7% | 48.0% |
| Ace rate | 8.6% | 1.4% |
| Double-fault rate | 3.6% | 3.2% |
Model estimate, not a betting tip. Not tracked as a bet. 18+. Gamble responsibly. Compare any two ratings yourself in the Elo Win Probability Calculator, or remove the margin from other prices with the no-vig calculator.
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This page is the model's view. Our actual picks get a full written analysis and further filters, and they are posted in the free Discord before the match.