ATP Swiss Indoors Basel 2026: who wins?
We simulated the remaining draw 20,000 times with our surface Elo ratings. Arthur Fils is the favourite with a 21% chance of the title; 8 of 32 players are still in. Updated 30 October at 05:30 UTC.
Results already played are fixed; every open match is decided by the Elo win probability. Model estimate, not a betting tip. 18+.
| Player | R2 | QF | SF | Final | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arthur Fils [2] · #8 | 100% | 100% | 52% | 34% | 21% |
| Jiri Lehecka [8] · #21 | 100% | 100% | 65% | 40% | 20% |
| Taylor Fritz [6] · #13 | 100% | 100% | 48% | 30% | 19% |
| Valentin Vacherot · #31 | 100% | 100% | 63% | 26% | 14% |
| Jan-Lennard Struff (SE) · #47 | 100% | 100% | 56% | 26% | 11% |
| Nuno Borges · #53 | 100% | 100% | 44% | 18% | 7% |
| Jerome Kym (WC) · #222 | 100% | 100% | 35% | 16% | 5% |
| Holger Rune | 100% | 100% | 37% | 11% | 5% |
| Alejandro Tabilo · #30Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aleksandar Kovacevic (LL) · #84Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Michelsen · #34Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arthur Rinderknech · #61Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ben Shelton [1] · #4Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Botic Van De Zandschulp · #37Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Casper Ruud [9] · #25Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Altmaier (LL) · #60Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Denis Shapovalov · #52Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dominic Stricker (WC) · #253Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (Q) · #148Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hubert Hurkacz [10] · #28Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo (Q) · #54Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mariano Navone · #43Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mika Brunold (LL) · #191Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Novak Djokovic (4WC) · #12Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Quentin Halys · #45Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rafael Jodar [3] · #11Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Remy Bertola (Q) · #236Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rinky Hijikata (LL) · #85Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stan Wawrinka (WC) · #151Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ugo Humbert · #38Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yannick Hanfmann (Q) · #59Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zizou Bergs · #39Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Columns show the chance to reach each stage. Percentages below 1% are shown as <1%.
The analysis behind every pick is in the Discord
Title chances are the model's view of the draw. Our actual picks get a full written analysis in the free Discord, posted before each match.