WTA Guangzhou Open 2026: who wins?
We simulated the remaining draw 20,000 times with our surface Elo ratings. Claire Liu is the favourite with a 19% chance of the title; 8 of 32 players are still in. Updated 30 October at 05:30 UTC.
Results already played are fixed; every open match is decided by the Elo win probability. Model estimate, not a betting tip. 18+.
| Player | R2 | QF | SF | Final | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claire Liu · #109 | 100% | 100% | 79% | 40% | 19% |
| Lilli Tagger [4] · #53 | 100% | 100% | 54% | 31% | 18% |
| Kaitlin Quevedo · #86 | 100% | 100% | 61% | 29% | 15% |
| Harriet Dart (Q) · #115 | 100% | 100% | 52% | 30% | 14% |
| Han Shi (WC) · #162 | 100% | 100% | 46% | 25% | 14% |
| Paula Badosa Gibert [5] · #61 | 100% | 100% | 48% | 26% | 12% |
| Jil Teichmann · #168 | 100% | 100% | 40% | 15% | 7% |
| Xinran Sun (WC) · #405Few tracked matches: rating estimated from ranking | 100% | 100% | 21% | 4% | <1% |
| Alevtina Ibragimova (Q) · #171Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Anastasia Zakharova (LL) · #105Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Anna Bondar · #76Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Antonia Ruzic · #84Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carol Young Suh Lee (Q) · #156Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daria Snigur [1] · #40Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dayana Yastremska (Q) · #97Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Janice Tjen [2] · #47Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Katerina Siniakova · #49Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Katie Volynets [8] · #81Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lanlana Tararudee [3] · #57Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Magda Linette · #71Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mananchaya Sawangkaew · #80Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maria Timofeeva [7] · #72Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Panna Udvardy · #78Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Polina Kudermetova · #91Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sara Sorribes Tormo · #167Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Simona Waltert · #128Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sinja Kraus · #77Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sofia Kenin (WC) · #187Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tatiana Prozorova (Q) · #123Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Teodora Kostovic (Q) · #143Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Venus Williams (WC)Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zeynep Sonmez [6] · #64Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
Columns show the chance to reach each stage. Percentages below 1% are shown as <1%.
Next matches at the Guangzhou Open
- Polina Kudermetova vs Alevtina IbragimovaQ1 · model vs market →
- Linda Fruhvirtova vs Katarzyna KawaQ1 · model vs market →
- Claire Liu vs Katerina SiniakovaSecond · model vs market →
- Paula Badosa Gibert vs Harriet Dart1/4 · model vs market →
- Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jil Teichmann1/4 · model vs market →
- Xinran Sun vs Claire Liu1/4 · model vs market →
- Lilli Tagger vs Han Shi1/4 · model vs market →
The analysis behind every pick is in the Discord
Title chances are the model's view of the draw. Our actual picks get a full written analysis in the free Discord, posted before each match.