Glossary
The terms we use across the site and in the Discord, defined in plain language — no finance-textbook jargon. Looking for something more practical, like how picks get made or whether the site is free? See the FAQ instead.
- Implied probability
- What the betting odds say the market thinks will happen, calculated as 1 ÷ decimal odds. Odds of 1.95 imply a 51.3% chance. It always includes the bookmaker's margin, so implied probabilities on both sides of a match add up to slightly more than 100%.
- Edge
- The gap between your own estimated win probability and the market's implied probability. If you estimate 60% and the market implies 51.3%, your edge is +8.7 percentage points. Positive edge means you think the price is better than it should be.
- Value bet
- A bet where your estimated probability of the outcome is higher than the odds imply — in other words, a bet with positive edge. "Value" describes the price, not whether the bet wins: a value bet can still lose, and a bad-value bet can still win.
- Kelly criterion
- A formula that converts your edge into a stake size that maximizes long-run bankroll growth. Full Kelly is volatile, so most bettors — ServedBets included — use a fraction of it (commonly a quarter) to reduce variance. Try the Kelly calculator.
- Closing line value (CLV)
- How your bet's odds compare to the odds right before the match starts (the "closing line"). If you bet at 2.00 and the closing odds are 1.90, you beat the closing line — a strong sign your original price was genuinely good, independent of whether the bet won.
- Surface Elo
- An Elo rating system (originally from chess) adapted for tennis, calculated separately for hard, clay, and grass courts instead of one blended number. A player can be elite on hard courts and mediocre on clay — surface-specific ratings capture that, a single overall rating doesn't.
- Vig (vigorish / juice)
- The bookmaker's built-in margin, baked into the odds on both sides of a bet. It's why implied probabilities always sum to slightly over 100% — that excess is the vig. "No-vig" or "fair" odds are what the odds would be if this margin were removed.
- Blind estimation
- Estimating a win probability before looking at the market's odds, specifically to avoid anchoring — the well-documented bias where seeing a number first (even an irrelevant one) skews your own independent estimate toward it.
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