Blog
Methodology, match analysis, and transparent performance reports — including the losses.
- 01tennis
Tennis Betting Odds for Beginners: A Plain-Language Guide
A beginner's guide to tennis betting odds: decimal odds, favorites vs. underdogs, moneyline vs. totals vs. spreads, and the vocabulary you need.
- 02methodology
Is Value Betting Actually Profitable? An Honest Answer
Value betting can be profitable, but bookmaker odds are efficient and beating them is genuinely hard. A realistic answer, backed by real tracked numbers.
- 03methodology
Why We Publish Every Losing Pick, Not Just the Wins
A feed of only wins is the most common pattern among fake tipster accounts. Why our track record shows losses too, and what to check on any results page.
- 04methodology
Flat Staking vs. Kelly Criterion: Which Actually Wins?
We tested flat staking, graduated stakes, and real quarter-Kelly sizing on our own tracked picks. What actually won, and why the 'optimal' method didn't.
- 05tennis
Does Head-to-Head Record Actually Matter in Tennis Betting?
Head-to-head record is one of the most overused stats in tennis. What it actually predicts, and why sample size makes most H2H claims unreliable.
- 06tennis
Why Tennis Ratings Need to Be Surface-Specific
A single overall rating hides how much a player's level swings between hard, clay, and grass. How surface-specific Elo works and why it matters.
- 07methodology
Closing Line Value Explained: The Metric That Ignores Whether You Won
Closing line value measures whether you beat the market's final price — independent of the match result. Here's why it's strong evidence of a good process.
- 08tennis
The Favorite-Longshot Bias in Tennis: What 16,177 Bets Show
We backtested 16,177 tennis bets from 2020-2025 by claimed edge. The bigger the claimed edge, the worse the realized ROI — a monotonic pattern across four bands.
- 09methodology
How to Calculate Implied Probability From Betting Odds
Implied probability is 1 divided by the decimal odds. The formula for every odds format, why the numbers exceed 100%, and how to remove the bookmaker's margin.
- 10tennis
What 244 Tracked Picks Reveal About a Value-Betting Model
244 tracked tennis picks, 203 settled, +26.48 units. What the raw record shows, what still doesn't clear statistical significance, and why both matter.
- 11tennis
What Is Value Betting in Tennis? A Data-Based Explanation
Value betting means finding prices where the market's implied probability is lower than the real one. How we calculate it for tennis, and where it goes wrong.